Kill / Scale Calculator

Left: clicks & budget before a kill is statistically safe. Right: feed live numbers for a KILL / SCALE / KEEP TESTING verdict.

Global — used by both calculators

Payout per conversion

Approval rate (% paid)

Confidence to decide

Test Budget Planner

How long to run before zero conversions means kill

Cost per click

Effective payout (after approval)—

Break-even conversion rate—

Clicks before you can kill—

Budget to that point—

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Conf.	Clicks	Budget

Kill / Scale Decision

Your live spend, clicks & conversions vs the offer

Spend so far

Clicks so far

Conversions so far

Offer metric (the one you were told — the other is derived from payout)

Revenue so far (payout × conv, after approval)—

Actual CPC—

Break-even CR needed—

Your observed CVR—

Offer's expected CVR / EPC—

Your EPC vs CPC—

Profit / loss so far—

Confidence in the call—

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Enter your numbers.

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How it decides. Break-even conversion rate = CPC ÷ (payout × approval rate). The verdict comes from your real conversions & clicks: it builds a probability range for your true long-run CVR (Beta(conv + 0.5, clicks − conv + 0.5)) and works out how sure it is which side of break-even you're really on. Your observed CVR can already sit under break-even while the sample is still too thin to trust — the confidence number is how sure the math is it'll stay there, which is what you actually act on. ≥ your confidence it's a loser → KILL; ≥ your confidence it's a winner → SCALE; neither → KEEP TESTING.

Created by @internetquant · skool.com/cash